
Analysis PLTR
Palantir's Q3 sales beat explains 40% of its annual forecast increase
Palantir's Q3 sales beat explains about 40% of its higher annual forecast. We compare what remains for Q4 as U.S. commercial sales overtake U.S. government sales.
Beyond the headline.
Inside the numbers.
Ticker Byline
Palantir sells software for integrating data and operations. Q3 revenue exceeded its own forecast, U.S. commercial sales overtook U.S. government sales and the annual outlook increased beyond the quarter’s outperformance.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (Nasdaq: PLTR) sells software that helps businesses and government institutions combine data, decisions and operations. Its principal platforms include Gotham, Foundry, Apollo and AIP.
The table compares the three months ended September 30. Amounts are USD millions, except per-share figures.
| Results | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,313.4 | 1,181.1 |
| Operating profit, GAAP | 1,084.8 | 393.3 |
| Net income for common shareholders, GAAP | 1,128.0 | 475.6 |
| Diluted earnings per share, GAAP | 0.44 | 0.18 |
| Operating cash flow | 1,204.6 | 507.7 |
In August, Palantir forecast Q3 revenue of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion and adjusted operating profit of $1.292 billion to $1.296 billion. Actual revenue was $2.313 billion and adjusted operating profit was $1.427 billion, above both ranges.
The annual revenue forecast rose to $8.530 billion to $8.534 billion from $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion. Comparing midpoints gives a $378 million increase. Q3's roughly $151 million outperformance explains about 40% of that change, leaving approximately $227 million of higher expectations for Q4.
The new Q4 revenue forecast is $2.649 billion to $2.653 billion, with adjusted operating profit of $1.640 billion to $1.644 billion. Annual adjusted operating profit is expected at $5.245 billion to $5.249 billion, versus $4.889 billion to $4.897 billion in August.
U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, versus $953 million from U.S. government customers, the first crossover according to Palantir. In Q2, the figures were $764 million and $809 million. A year earlier, they were $397 million and $486 million.
Palantir now expects more than $3.559 billion in annual U.S. commercial revenue, up from more than $3.424 billion in August. Total U.S. revenue reached $1.937 billion in Q3, versus $883 million a year earlier.
Adjusted operating profit removes share-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes. Those exclusions were $318.9 million and $23.1 million in Q3. Reported operating profit was $1.085 billion; the adjusted figure was $1.427 billion.
Q3 operating cash flow was $1.205 billion and capital spending was $8.0 million. Palantir's adjusted free cash flow was $1.216 billion, which also adds back $19.5 million of cash payroll taxes tied to share-based compensation.
For the first nine months, operating cash flow was $3.320 billion, versus $1.357 billion a year earlier. Capital spending was $30.0 million, versus $20.6 million. The annual adjusted free-cash-flow outlook rose to $4.8 billion to $5.0 billion from $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion.
At September 30, cash and cash equivalents were $3.619 billion and marketable securities were $6.942 billion. No borrowing balance was shown on the September balance sheet.
The potential lifetime value of contracts closed in Q3 was $2.918 billion, versus $2.760 billion a year earlier and $3.373 billion in Q2. U.S. commercial contract value was $1.463 billion, versus $1.310 billion a year earlier and $2.132 billion in Q2.
These contract values include optional periods and contracts that customers can terminate. U.S. commercial remaining deal value was $6.517 billion, versus $6.238 billion in Q2 and $3.630 billion a year earlier. It uses the same assumptions about options and continued contracts.

Analysis PLTR
Palantir's Q3 sales beat explains about 40% of its higher annual forecast. We compare what remains for Q4 as U.S. commercial sales overtake U.S. government sales.