Cortrophin sales are rising. Why is ANI cutting its target again?

ANI Pharmaceuticals cut its annual Cortrophin Gel sales forecast for a second consecutive quarter, even as the drug's revenue kept rising. The company says specialized pharmacies are taking longer than expected to turn patient requests into treatment and sales.

Cortrophin generated $138.7 million in Q3 revenue, up 36% from a year earlier. ANI says demand indicators remain strong, including its expansion into gout, but pharmacy capacity is slowing the conversion of that demand into revenue.

A lower target still needs a stronger finish

ANI now expects $480 million to $500 million of Cortrophin sales this year. In August, it had already lowered the range to $520 million to $540 million from $540 million to $575 million.

Research by Ticker Byline shows that the latest target still requires approximately $149.1 million to $169.1 million of Cortrophin revenue in Q4. That is above Q3's $138.7 million, based on $330.9 million of sales in the first nine months.

The calculation shows what the pharmacy expansion has to support before year-end. ANI is adding pharmacy capacity and patient-support resources, while its expanded sales team continues to generate new cases.

That makes the pace at which patients actually start treatment a more useful test of the near-term sales outlook than new patient requests alone.

The broader profit outlook is improving

Cortrophin's revised forecast has not produced an across-the-board downgrade. ANI raised the lower end of its annual adjusted EBITDA target, its profit measure before financing costs, taxes and selected expenses, to $290 million from $285 million. The upper end remains $300 million.

Group revenue is now forecast at $1.085 billion to $1.125 billion, compared with $1.080 billion to $1.140 billion previously. The range is narrower and its midpoint slightly lower.

The rest of the business provided support in Q3. Generic product sales increased 11%, ILUVIEN revenue grew 34% and the Harmony agreement produced royalty and development-milestone income. GAAP net income rose to $35.1 million from $26.6 million, while adjusted diluted EPS increased to $2.70 from $2.04.

A new deal brings another growth project

ANI has also offered to acquire Swedish rare-disease company Egetis Therapeutics in a transaction it values at approximately $560 million. The offer remains conditional on shareholder acceptance and regulatory approvals, with closing expected in late 2026 or early 2027.

The company plans to use existing cash and additional debt. It expects investment in the U.S. commercial launch of Egetis' product to reduce adjusted earnings per share in the first year of ownership.

The proposed acquisition adds a future growth opportunity and another execution task. The immediate test remains closer to home: can ANI expand its pharmacy network quickly enough to deliver the stronger Cortrophin finish still built into its reduced forecast?

Our ANI Pharmaceuticals company profile tracks the successive forecasts, cash generation, existing debt and proposed Egetis financing.