Western Union expects less revenue. Its earnings outlook just went up.

Western Union has lowered its revenue forecast but raised its outlook for adjusted earnings per share. The new forecast reaches the same earnings range whether its delayed Intermex acquisition closes this year or stays unfinished.

The money-transfer company now expects adjusted earnings of $1.28 to $1.38 a share in 2026, three cents higher at each end than July's forecast. Its expected adjusted tax rate has fallen, and operating margins have recovered from a weak first half.

That improvement comes with a weaker sales outlook and quarterly earnings that remain below last year. The question is how much of the recovery can come from the business itself as Western Union cuts costs and pushes more transfers online.

The acquisition changed the revenue math

July's forecast assumed Intermex would join the group on September 1. It called for reported revenue growth of 3% to 5% this year.

Western Union now sees growth of zero to 1% if the transaction closes November 10. If it does not close during 2026, revenue is expected to fall 1% to 2%. A later acquisition leaves less Intermex revenue in the year's accounts.

The adjusted earnings forecast is $1.28 to $1.38 a share in both cases. That makes the earnings upgrade less dependent on a last-minute closing, even though the deal remains important to the company's expansion.

California's financial regulator suspended its approval in August, and that approval still needs to be reinstated. A renewed federal antitrust waiting period expired November 2. November 10 gives either party a contractual right to terminate if the deal has not closed; it does not automatically end the agreement.

Better margins, with a tax lift

The annual adjusted tax-rate forecast is now 10% to 12%, down from 13% to 15% in July. A lower tax rate leaves more pretax profit for shareholders.

Operating performance has improved since the first half, too. The adjusted operating margin rose from 15% in the second quarter to 18% in the third. Adjusted earnings per share increased from 31 cents to 42 cents over the same period.

Compared with a year earlier, however, adjusted earnings fell from 47 cents a share. Revenue slipped 2% to $1.01 billion, and reported net income fell to $78 million from $139.6 million.

The adjusted numbers exclude $37.3 million of costs for Western Union's Beyond efficiency program, alongside acquisition, severance and other specified costs. Adjusted earnings also remove a $15 million noncash international tax charge and the related tax effects of the other adjustments.

More digital transfers, less money from the whole network

Branded Digital revenue rose 8%, with transactions up 21%. The channel accounted for 32% of revenue in Consumer Money Transfer, Western Union's main business.

Across that entire business, transaction volume rose 2%, but revenue fell 2%. Digital growth is helping, while weakness in North American retail transfers continues to weigh on the larger network.

In July, management targeted $50 million of annualized operating-cost savings by year-end. Its latest presentation describes plans to reduce headcount by more than 650 employees and move work between operating centers.

For now, the earnings forecast benefits from both a lower tax assumption and a recovery in margins, while revenue growth still depends partly on the timing of Intermex. The Western Union company profile tracks those forecasts alongside cash flow, debt and the deal's financing.