Analysis NBIX
Neurocrine raises Ingrezza’s target. What does Q4 still need to deliver?
Vykat’s first full quarter and a recovery in cash broaden the story beyond Ingrezza. The company also lowered its annual selling and administrative expense forecast.
Neurocrine Biosciences now expects $2.900 billion to $2.925 billion of Ingrezza sales in 2026, up from July's $2.825 billion to $2.875 billion range. The latest quarter brought $801.5 million from the medicine.
Sales of Ingrezza through September provide the starting point for calculating what the final quarter needs to contribute to the new annual target.
The fourth-quarter arithmetic
Research by Ticker Byline shows that subtracting the first nine months' $2.175 billion of Ingrezza sales from the annual forecast implies approximately $725 million to $750 million in the fourth quarter.
| Ingrezza sales, USD millions | Amount |
|---|---|
| Third-quarter actual | 801.5 |
| First nine months actual | 2,174.8 |
| Full-year forecast | 2,900 to 2,925 |
| Implied fourth quarter, our calculation | 725.2 to 750.2 |
The third quarter was strong across the business. Total revenue grew 41% to $1.123 billion, including the newly acquired Vykat XR. Ingrezza sales increased 17%, while Crenessity revenue more than doubled. Management reported double-digit volume growth for Ingrezza.
A lower expense forecast accompanies the sales increase
Neurocrine reduced its annual selling and administrative expense forecast to $1.540 billion to $1.560 billion, from $1.575 billion to $1.600 billion. The adjusted expense range also moved lower.
Actual quarterly selling and administrative expenses were higher than a year earlier, reflecting expanded sales teams and support for the wider medicine portfolio. Research and development guidance was unchanged, while the forecast for acquired research expense rose from $23 million to $34 million.
Vykat supplies its first full quarter
Neurocrine completed the Soleno acquisition on May 18. Vykat XR contributed $106.7 million in its first full quarter within the company.
The July release supplied a $94 million full-quarter comparison for the second quarter, including sales before the acquisition closed. Against that unaudited comparison, the latest quarter was about 14% higher.
The acquisition used $2.359 billion of cash after acquired cash. Cash and marketable securities recovered to $789.7 million at September 30 from $481.7 million at June 30. A $600 million credit-facility draw used around the acquisition had already been repaid in June.
The Neurocrine company profile tracks the completed purchase, the evolving sales and expense forecasts, and the comparable periods for Vykat's contribution.