Tinder hit its usage milestone. Can Match bring back paying users?

Tinder reached a milestone in September: its daily active-user measure returned to year-over-year growth for the first time in three and a half years. Match Group now has to turn that improving engagement into more paying users and revenue.

The milestone fulfilled an expectation management had set in August. The broader recovery is still taking shape. Over Q3 as a whole, Tinder's daily active-user measure fell 1%, monthly active users fell 5.5% and its average monthly paying-user count fell 4% to 8.9 million.

Match's daily measure counts users who were active during the preceding seven days, averaged across each day of the period.

The next stage is turning engagement into sales

Tinder's direct revenue, which comes from subscriptions and other purchases by users, fell to $480 million from $490.6 million a year earlier.

Management is focusing on features that make Tinder more social, including Events and Group Hangouts, alongside improved recommendations. Its next task is to convert better user experiences into sustained revenue growth in 2027.

Hinge is already growing. Its direct revenue rose to $220.6 million from $184.7 million. But that gain has to work against declines elsewhere in the portfolio.

Research by Ticker Byline shows that Hinge's $35.9 million revenue gain covered about 79% of the $45.4 million decline at Match's Everyone Everywhere group of smaller brands. Tinder's decline and weaker advertising added to the pressure. Total Match revenue fell 3% to $891.2 million.

Why the profit beat needs a closer look

Match's adjusted EBITDA, a profit measure excluding interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, stock compensation and selected other items, reached $344.5 million. That exceeded August's $330 million to $335 million forecast.

The company says the beat mainly reflected marketing spending moving from Q3 into Q4. Revenue was within its $885 million to $895 million forecast, with exchange rates $6 million more favorable than expected.

The reported 14% increase in adjusted EBITDA also benefited from last year's $61 million legal settlement charge. On Match's comparison excluding that charge from the prior year, adjusted EBITDA fell 5%.

Marketing spending shifts into the final quarter

Match expects Q4 revenue of $865 million to $875 million and adjusted EBITDA of $327.5 million to $332.5 million. The profit midpoint is 11% below last year, reflecting increased marketing and a prior-year gain on an office sale.

The Match Group company profile tracks results by brand, cash generation, debt and the latest forecasts.