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Analysis VRTX

Vertex raised its sales forecast. Its spending budget rose faster.

Crinetics is now part of the revenue and spending outlook. The larger budget arrives as adjusted quarterly profit slips despite double-digit sales growth.

Illustration of a generic laboratory bench with unlabeled glass sample vials, a micropipette stand and blurred scientific equipment.
Illustration.

Vertex raised its annual sales forecast by $50 million at the midpoint. Its expected research and commercial spending increased by about $300 million on an adjusted basis.

The difference reflects a changing business: Vertex completed its Crinetics acquisition on September 1. The deal adds a new medicine and development programs, along with the cost of supporting them.

What changed in the sales forecast?

The new annual revenue range is $13.15 billion to $13.25 billion, up from $13.1 billion to $13.2 billion. It includes $40 million to $50 million from PALSONIFY, the acromegaly medicine acquired with Crinetics.

Research by Ticker Byline shows that the new PALSONIFY forecast is similar in size to the entire $50 million increase at the midpoint of the revenue range. August's forecast had explicitly excluded the then-pending acquisition.

The spending forecast also now includes Crinetics. Vertex expects approximately $6 billion of adjusted research, acquired research and selling and administrative expenses, versus the earlier $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion range.

That budget supports the acquired business, ongoing drug launches and preparations for a possible kidney-medicine launch. It excludes selected items such as stock compensation and acquisition-related costs.

More sales, lower adjusted profit

Quarterly revenue rose 12% to $3.441 billion. Cystic fibrosis medicines generated $3.273 billion, still about 95% of total sales. CASGEVY and JOURNAVX continued to grow, while PALSONIFY contributed $10.1 million in its first month under Vertex.

GAAP net income fell 40% to $653.6 million. The quarter included $502 million of acquisition-related costs, primarily compensation for cash-settled Crinetics equity awards and transaction expenses.

Even after adjustments, net income fell 2% to $1.214 billion. Adjusted research and commercial expenses rose 19%, and interest expense increased to $36 million from $3.3 million. The deal and launches are bringing costs alongside the growing revenue.

The acquisition changes the balance sheet

Crinetics cost approximately $10 billion in equity value, or $9 billion after acquired cash and securities. Vertex borrowed $4.5 billion through a term loan in Q3.

Cash and marketable securities totaled $9.8 billion at September 30, versus $12.3 billion at year-end. The balance gives Vertex resources for its launch plans even after the acquisition.

One upcoming milestone is the FDA's November 30 target decision date for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy, a kidney disease. Approval would add another commercial business to support.

The Vertex company profile tracks comparable results, forecasts, cash and debt, along with the completed Crinetics acquisition.