Analysis AKR
Acadia cuts its profit forecast while new rent waits for store openings
The landlord’s signed rent pipeline has more than doubled since March. Property write-downs and store opening dates explain different parts of the outlook.
Acadia Realty Trust cut its full-year profit forecast after writing down two properties. Yet the retail landlord’s signed leases point to more rent ahead, with store openings determining when that income starts.
The company now expects 2026 earnings of 29 to 30 cents a share, down from 40 to 41 cents in July. It kept its forecast for adjusted funds from operations, a widely used property earnings measure, at $1.24 to $1.26 a share.
Rent signed, but not yet started
Research by Ticker Byline shows that Acadia’s annualized rent from signed leases waiting for stores to open has more than doubled in six months, from $10.5 million at March 31 to $21.8 million at September 30.
That pipeline covers Acadia’s share of rent across its property and investment management businesses, including developments. It grew even as leases representing $3.1 million of annual rent began during the third quarter: newly signed leases added another $8.4 million.
At its Henderson Avenue development in Dallas, Acadia expects openings throughout 2027, with most of that year’s property income arriving in the second half. About 90% of the retail space is leased or in advanced negotiations.
Why the profit forecast fell
A noncash $11.7 million write-down on two properties being sold weighed on the September quarter. Acadia reported a loss of 3 cents a share, compared with a profit of 3 cents a year earlier.
Funds from operations adds back depreciation, the accounting charge that spreads property costs over time, and certain write-downs. It also removes gains from property sales. Adjusted funds from operations makes further changes for specified costs. That is why the property write-down affects the profit forecast differently from the unchanged adjusted forecast.
The write-down amounted to about 8 cents a share. It explains much of the 11-cent reduction in the annual profit range; changes in depreciation and expected gains also affect the forecast.
The existing properties are growing too
Income after property operating expenses rose 10.2% at comparable properties in the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Street retail led that increase. On comparable new leases, initial cash rents were 62% above the previous rents.
Acadia also completed about $152 million of street retail purchases in the quarter.
The Acadia company profile records its rent pipeline, revised forecast, acquisitions and financing.