Sempra's bigger Texas plan comes with a California earnings catch
Oncor sees room for more grid investment. A proposed California decision could pull Sempra's 2027 earnings toward the lower half of its outlook, while an asset sale helps fund its utility ambitions.
Texas electricity demand is giving Sempra a bigger growth opportunity. Oncor, the power-line business in which it holds an 80.25% stake, expects its next five-year investment plan to be about 20% larger than the current $47.5 billion plan.
Turning that opportunity into group earnings also depends on what happens in California. Sempra says a proposed regulatory decision could push next year's profit toward the lower half of its forecast range, unless it wins relief or finds other ways to offset the impact.
More grid investment, on a later timetable
Sempra owns California electric and gas utilities and has investments in Texas utilities and energy infrastructure. Its Texas utilities business earned $460 million in the third quarter, up from $306 million a year earlier. Group adjusted diluted earnings per share rose to $1.40 from $1.11.
Oncor's existing base investment plan covers 2026 through 2030. The next covers 2027 through 2031, with the final plan expected in February 2027. Sempra says rising power demand and the need to maintain reliability are driving the expected increase.
Sempra counts its share of Oncor's earnings rather than including all of the utility's revenue and construction spending in its own accounts. Its financial commitment will depend on its ownership share and the final investment plan.
California puts next year's earnings in focus
On October 29, California regulators proposed denying a request by San Diego Gas & Electric and Southern California Gas to change how they recover investment costs from customers in 2027. Sempra says it is pursuing other regulatory avenues.
Without a successful outcome or offsetting business initiatives, California earnings could reach only the low end of the segment's forecast. That could pull Sempra toward the lower half of its group outlook for 2027. The company has kept that forecast range in place.
For 2026, the picture is stronger. Sempra now expects to reach the high end of its $4.80–$5.30 adjusted EPS range. Those endpoints match the forecast it gave in August.
The sale that helps pay for utility growth
Sempra plans to release capital by selling a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners. In its November 5 update, it expected that transaction to close within two weeks.
The $9.99 billion base price includes $4.65 billion of cash at closing, before adjustments, taxes and fees. The rest would arrive later. Sempra would retain a 25% interest and some obligations to support infrastructure projects.
The sale's timing already affects the spending figures. Sempra now estimates $12.1 billion of property and investment spending in 2026, compared with $8.6 billion in its earlier annual-report estimate. It says the increase mainly reflects keeping the infrastructure business in its consolidated accounts for longer before the sale.
Operating cash flow rose to $4.68 billion in the first nine months, from $3.38 billion a year earlier. Cash spending on property was $7.33 billion, with another $2.10 billion spent on investments, principally contributions to Oncor. Completing the sale would put cash behind Sempra's shift toward utility growth; California's regulatory outcome will help determine how much of that growth reaches next year's earnings.
The Sempra company profile tracks its utility results, cash flow, debt and completed and pending transactions.