PROG's lower forecast already counts on its $100 million buyback

PROG Holdings has spent $100 million on an accelerated share repurchase, using cash and credit agreement borrowings.

The consumer finance group paid Bank of America on October 29 and received about 2.59 million shares initially. The arrangement was disclosed in a November 2 filing, following the company’s October 28 announcement that it intended to proceed.

The share boost was already in the forecast

Research by Ticker Byline shows that PROG’s October 28 forecast already assumed the initial share delivery under the planned buyback. That matters because fewer shares spread the company’s earnings over a smaller base.

Even with that benefit, PROG lowered its expected 2026 adjusted earnings per share to $4.70 to $4.85, from $4.75 to $5.00 in July. The adjusted figure excludes specified acquisition costs and other accounting items.

It also cut its adjusted EBITDA forecast, a profit measure before financing costs, taxes and certain accounting charges, to $345 million to $355 million from $355 million to $375 million. The company attributed its more cautious outlook to financial pressure on consumers.

Growth depends on which business you look at

Revenue rose 25.6% to $725.8 million in the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Much of the comparison changed when PROG acquired Purchasing Power in January. That business lets employees buy products through payroll deductions.

Progressive Leasing, PROG’s largest operation, saw revenue fall 0.7% to $552.7 million. Its adjusted EBITDA fell 12.3%. It provides lease-to-own arrangements for items such as furniture and appliances.

Four, its buy-now-pay-later business, moved in the other direction. Revenue more than doubled to $37.2 million, and PROG raised Four’s annual adjusted profit target while lowering those for Progressive Leasing and Purchasing Power.

What the buyback still leaves open

The initial 2.59 million shares are not the final count. The total will depend on average trading prices during the arrangement, with settlement expected by the end of the first quarter of 2027. PROG’s latest per-share forecast excludes any additional shares delivered at that settlement.

The company did not say how much of the $100 million came from cash and how much from borrowing. Its last reported cash balance, $108.9 million at September 30, predates the purchase.

The PROG company profile keeps the buyback agreement, revised forecasts and debt position together with the performance of its three main businesses.