Oshkosh has fire truck orders. Building them is the problem.

Oshkosh has plenty of fire trucks to build, but improving the factories is taking longer than management expected. The setback is now large enough to force another reduction in its 2026 profit outlook.

The specialized vehicle maker expects adjusted earnings of $8.50 to $9.50 a share this year, down from the approximately $11 forecast it gave in July. Its reported earnings forecast falls to $8 to $9 a share from about $10.50.

The problem is turning demand into finished vehicles. Chief Executive Officer John Pfeifer said improvements in fire truck production were taking longer than expected. The company is working on material flow and production scheduling as it moves to a different manufacturing setup.

More sales, less operating profit

Group sales rose 5.7% from a year earlier to $2.84 billion in the third quarter of 2026. Operating profit nevertheless fell 24.3% to $197.1 million. Reported earnings were $2.22 a share, compared with $3.04 a year earlier. Last year's result included a 30-cent benefit from settling a federal tax audit, which makes the comparison less favorable this year.

The weakness was concentrated in the Vocational division, which includes fire apparatus and other specialized vehicles. Its sales fell 7% and operating profit declined 38.2% to $87.6 million. Lower fire truck production, along with higher overhead and other costs, weighed on the division.

That is different from the Access business, which makes equipment used to work at height. Its sales rose 20.7% and operating profit increased to $145.7 million. Stronger volumes there are helping, but cannot fully offset problems elsewhere.

The adjusted quarterly result was $2.41 a share, down from $3.20. Adjusted earnings remove specified costs and gains from reported profit, so the two measures should be compared separately. Both declined from a year earlier.

A postal order adds another uncertainty

The lower annual forecast also reflects slower production of next-generation postal delivery vehicles. At the bottom of the new earnings range, Oshkosh allows for the possibility that it receives no new order for those vehicles during 2026. Management says that could affect earnings by as much as 50 cents a share.

This does not mean the wider postal vehicle program has been cancelled. It is a specific uncertainty about the timing of a new order, on top of production challenges.

The sales forecast is now about $11 billion for 2026, down from $11.2 billion. The reduction is much smaller than the cut to the earnings target, showing how sensitive profit is to which vehicles are produced and the costs of building them.

The cash picture provides some balance. Over the first nine months of 2026, cash from operations rose to $533.2 million from $183.3 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $558 million at September 30. Those figures do not erase the production setback, but show that lower quarterly earnings have not been accompanied by weaker operating cash generation over the year so far.

Management describes the factory problems as near term. Its revised forecast gives investors a more concrete test: whether production improves enough to support the new, lower earnings range.