Acadia expects more cash. A smaller investment budget does most of the work.
The behavioral-health operator raised its earnings targets and cut planned investment again. A comparison with July shows how the two changes reshape cash left after spending.
Acadia Healthcare is raising its profit targets while cutting its investment budget again. The behavioral-health operator expects a stronger year, but the improvement in cash left after investment depends more on spending less than on bringing in more cash from operations.
The company now plans $210 million to $230 million of capital spending, down from $235 million to $255 million in July. It also raised the lower end of its operating cash flow forecast to $375 million from $350 million, keeping the upper end at $400 million.
What the two changes add up to
Research by Ticker Byline shows that subtracting planned investment from operating cash at the midpoint of each forecast lifts the implied amount left from $130 million in July to $167.5 million now.
Of that $37.5 million improvement, $25 million comes from the lower investment budget and $12.5 million from higher operating cash expectations. This is a comparison of forecasts, before other uses of cash such as debt repayment.
The change builds on a sharp spending slowdown already visible in the accounts. Expansion investment for the first nine months fell to $94.8 million from $402.5 million a year earlier. Routine and maintenance spending was $71.1 million, making total capital spending $165.9 million.
The next return comes from hospitals already opened
Acadia has opened 16 acute psychiatric hospitals over the past four years. Chief Executive Officer Debbie Osteen says those facilities should deliver about $60 million more in EBITDA in 2027 than in 2026, as they build up their businesses.
The current quarter shows both progress and the cost of getting there. Acute-care revenue rose 11% to $524.8 million, with volume up 7.5% as capacity expanded. Across established facilities, patient days increased 1.1% and revenue per patient day rose 4.0%.
Yet higher professional-liability costs and losses at new facilities absorbed much of the underlying operating improvement. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA rose only 2% to $176.4 million. The measure removes interest, tax, depreciation, amortization and selected costs, including stock-based pay.
Adjusted earnings per share fell to $0.60 from $0.72. Net profit attributable to Acadia also fell, to $34.5 million from $36.2 million. The higher annual forecast therefore comes alongside a quarter in which several profit measures were still below last year's levels.
A stronger outlook, with cash drivers worth separating
Acadia now expects annual adjusted EBITDA of $615 million to $625 million, up from $590 million to $615 million. Its adjusted earnings forecast rose to $1.70 to $1.80 per share from $1.45 to $1.60.
Q3 profit also included a $13.4 million accrual for expected Florida supplemental-program payments, above the $5.6 million assumed in the previous guidance. Those are booked earnings from expected payments.
Actual operating cash flow for the first nine months rose to $321.5 million from $218.2 million. Insurance proceeds of $31.5 million from an earlier securities case, state-program collections and working-capital changes helped that increase.
With $2.35 billion of debt on the balance sheet and $163.3 million of cash at September 30, the cash left after investment matters. The next operating test is how much the newer hospitals can contribute as spending slows. Our Acadia company profile tracks the forecasts, borrowing and remaining liability issues.